Been awhile since I posted some poli-talk regarding the campaign.. So.. here we go. Random rants.

Economy

Man, what a complete and utter change of pace in this president election. Starting with McCain's grandstanding of the suspension of his campaign for the bailout (which the notion of going back to dc, I agreed with, the method? well.. lets just say it was a little awkward.), this thing has swung 100% in Obama's direction.

Go back over the last 100 years worth of presidential elections and find an incumbent party who wins after October suffers a stock market decline. Now consider that the stock market decline is the worst since the depression era. (there is only one president who has won after a big decline, which was W. in 2004).

My specific policy concerns with McCain have come through this economic ordeal. The truth is, I don't care for either candidates economic proposals. It seems like the country is busy creating ways to reward those who make poor choices and ignore those that have acted responsibly. No wonder our 'capitalist' structure has, according to the media, been threatened. We're simply not capitalists anymore. At least, if we are, they don't seem to live in Washington.

Sarah Palin

Most candidates move to the center during the general election. At the start of this general, both Obama and McCain seemed to be moving closer to their respective parties. Obama had to make up to the Clinton crowd and win back some fans, and McCain felt the need to get the evangelicals on board. The difference between the two is that McCain didn't seem to stop trying to appeal to that portion of the base. At one point around the Palin pick, McCain held a 15% advantage over independents. That's gone now, and will likely be a key figure in his loss this November. McCain's correct when he tells Obama that he is not President Bush. No matter how much Obama and his supporters want to say they are the same, it's just not the situation. The problem is that while McCain is saying that, he's spending an awful lot of time and money trying to look like he's cut from the same clothe. I don't get it.

Then again, without Palin on the ticket, this thing would have probably been over a long, long time ago. So, there's that.

Colin Powel

Today's endorsement of Obama by one of my favorite washington figures (Colin Powell) serves as a reassurance that we, collectively, always find a way to figure it out. I'll likely send in my absentee ballot (which is sitting on my desk) with a vote for McCain, but Obama will have every opportunity to earn my vote for 2012. As I've said previously re. Obama, I'm fascinated by the guy. I love his books, I think he has correctly identified many of the problems our country faces, I'm just a little gun shy on his proposals and policies. More importantly than that, I can't stand me some Nancy Pelosi.

McCain Rallies

Oh come on. How many republican protestors were arrested at the DNC? How many "Abort Biden" shirts have you seen vs "Abort Palin?" How many times has Obama stood up and corrected someone at one of his rallies for attacking McCain like what McCain did for Obama last week? Wasn't it Obama who told his supporters to go door to door and "get in their face and argue?" You know how pissed I'd be if someone had the audacity to come to my front door and "get in my face" over a political election?

I, personally, have never before seen this kind of intensity out of the left. I'm simply not that pissed off, and yes, I pay a whole lot of attention. The reason I'm not that pissed off is because I also read a lot of history. Things simply repeat in this country and we do the best that we can to contend with changing dynamics. It's part of life, not the end of times. I know that there are Republicans that are uber pissed/scared, but I haven't met any of them. I've only seen them on TV. As far as democrats go, all you need to do is read twitter and count the personal attacks against Palin and McCain. It's 100%, without a doubt, shameful. You're free to not like a candidate or all the candidates. The irony of it is that all of them are far more accomplished than most of us will ever be. They've dedicated their life to public service. Show some respect already. On both sides.

McCain's Chances

So goes Ohio, so goes the nation. With early voting taking place already, this thing is likely already over for McCain. Let's just hope it doesn't come down to a margin within the massive voter fraud taking place there. (then again, Obama is an awful lot like Kennedy.... heyyoOOOO! ;). Chances are though, that it'll be a solid national win for Obama. All the signs seem to be pointing to that, and there are only two weeks left.

I'll say this though, I will not be one of those people who bitch about it incessantly with the "not my president" bumper sticker and the "I didn't vote for him" nonsense. We're a republic. We vote. Candidates win or lose and we go on with our lives. Win graciously, lose graciously. Those silly, childish bumper stickers do nothing but promote the false notion that you bear no responsibility for our country. We're all in this together.

Anyhow.. That's enough rambling for now ;)

At least, for Gov. Palin. Sen. Biden seems to be able to make up whatever nonsense/lies he wants on the spot without anyone blinking an eye.

I still hold that the Gov. Palin pick was brilliant strategy. I do not think McCain would be as close as he is right now in the polls without Gov. Palin. Maybe KB Hutchinson would have worked out (and would have certainly been experienced), but who knows.. So far though, and maybe because of Gov. Palin's 'handlers' (who are supposedly Bush folks), she hasn't "wowed" me (outside the RNC speech). To be fair, the only interviews that have been done have been pretty soft or included Charlie Gibson himself flubbing the Bush Doctrine (which no one but the Washington Post seemed to notice).

Tonight it's on. It's, in my opinion, the first real chance to judge her ability to be in the White House. Does it matter? Not really. Obamabots will say she was awful and the worst thing ever and that they're 'outraged' by it, and conservatives will say Biden is a moronic windbag and Gov. Palin is a hottie and McDonald's should carry moose burgers. Then in a couple of days, we'll go back to worrying about, you know, jobs and things.

But man, it's going to make for great TV. Even if it does end up being a train wreck (for either candidate, they both seem to be capable of it.. we'll see)

Well, she's got grit, that's for sure.

This whole time we've been thinking that the narrative is experience vs. non experience. I criticized the Biden pick over it, as I wasn't not sure how it fit in. Damn near everyone criticized the Palin pick for the same reasons. I guess for me, there was a sense that things weren't what they seemed, and we'd have to wait for her to talk to be sure. Typically, narratives aren't set until the convention. This has just been such a long and painful campaign cycle, it felt easy to jump the gun.

I thought there might be experience and woman issues as major story lines. What I missed though, is something that I think Steve Schmidt deserves a whole lot of credit for. The narrative is neither of these things, at least, primarily.

The plot has turned into small town America vs big cities.

I had all but forgotten the "they cling to guns and religion" comment. That was truly a turning point for the Obama/Hillary showdown if you put it on a time line. I think it was Peggy Noonan who said there are ~250 cities with 100k or more, and 100k or more cities with 10k or less.

To put it in geek terms, small towns are the long tail in American politics.

So what does this mean for the race? No idea. All I know is McCain stands a much better chance today than he would have with a tradional pick. There are about 60 days left until the election though. Lot's of things can happen, and some of the dirt being thrown at Gov. Palin may very well stick. We've yet to see any real polling numbers on any of this but should start to get a better idea in a week or two.

National polls don't matter much, instead watch polling in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Penn, and Virginia. Penn is a long shot for republicans, it'll be more about trying to force Democrats to spend money and time defending it. Indiana and Minnesota are other long shots for both parties. To give you an idea of how close this election is, if everyone voted Today, Obama would win by less than a state. If Colorado, which has traditionally been republican and is now on the fence, again votes republican, McCain wins. This isn't the landslide a lot of folks like to pretend it'll be.

I should say, since I have a lot of friends who are over the top Obama supporters, that I'm fascinated by the guy. I keep his 2004 DNC speech on my ipod, after he gave it I immediately read his first book and then when his second book came out, I read it that week straight through. I love his story, I love his charisma, I love his feelings towards community. I just simply disagree with his view on the role of government, and I'd be a hack if I didn't acknowledge that.

Most folks take that to mean that I was going to vote McCain anyway. Perhaps, but truth be told if a pollster called and asked, I likely would have said Bob Barr. I was thinking it may very well be a protest vote kind of year. What I needed to see from McCain was vintage McCain, not robotic scripted awkward McCain. Picking a vp out of left right field that infuriates so many people? Now, that's more like it. McCain is supposed to be unpredictable. That's part of his charm. And truth be told -- I'm just as annoyed with what the GOP has done lately as everybody else. I think most fiscal conservative types are.

We'll see how all this plays out. I'm just thrilled that no matter what happens, a history changing ticket wins. We've come a long way.

When Obama was rumored to be picking Gov Kaine, we heard certain cable news networks talk about him being an outsider and enhancing the reform characteristics of Obama's ticket.

McCain picks Gov Palin, those same news networks talk about how its a desperation pick.

Both Palin and Kaine have similar amounts of governing experience. One just happens to be a female on a GOP ticket (omg its the wrong party!)

During the rally yesterday, MSNBC put in their ticker -- "How many houses does this ad to the McCain campaign?". Yeah, that's relevant and unbiased. Someone take the keyboard for the ticker away from Keith Olbermann, and stat.

Hillary's camp has long accused MSNBC of favoritism towards Obama. Hell, Mathews doesn't care if Obama gives him chills up and down his leg, he wants the world to know! You'll start hearing the republicans lobbing the same criticisms towards MSNBC. It'll be interesting to see if the Clinton's back off their statements now that he's "their guy."