Well, she's got grit, that's for sure.

This whole time we've been thinking that the narrative is experience vs. non experience. I criticized the Biden pick over it, as I wasn't not sure how it fit in. Damn near everyone criticized the Palin pick for the same reasons. I guess for me, there was a sense that things weren't what they seemed, and we'd have to wait for her to talk to be sure. Typically, narratives aren't set until the convention. This has just been such a long and painful campaign cycle, it felt easy to jump the gun.

I thought there might be experience and woman issues as major story lines. What I missed though, is something that I think Steve Schmidt deserves a whole lot of credit for. The narrative is neither of these things, at least, primarily.

The plot has turned into small town America vs big cities.

I had all but forgotten the "they cling to guns and religion" comment. That was truly a turning point for the Obama/Hillary showdown if you put it on a time line. I think it was Peggy Noonan who said there are ~250 cities with 100k or more, and 100k or more cities with 10k or less.

To put it in geek terms, small towns are the long tail in American politics.

So what does this mean for the race? No idea. All I know is McCain stands a much better chance today than he would have with a tradional pick. There are about 60 days left until the election though. Lot's of things can happen, and some of the dirt being thrown at Gov. Palin may very well stick. We've yet to see any real polling numbers on any of this but should start to get a better idea in a week or two.

National polls don't matter much, instead watch polling in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Penn, and Virginia. Penn is a long shot for republicans, it'll be more about trying to force Democrats to spend money and time defending it. Indiana and Minnesota are other long shots for both parties. To give you an idea of how close this election is, if everyone voted Today, Obama would win by less than a state. If Colorado, which has traditionally been republican and is now on the fence, again votes republican, McCain wins. This isn't the landslide a lot of folks like to pretend it'll be.

I should say, since I have a lot of friends who are over the top Obama supporters, that I'm fascinated by the guy. I keep his 2004 DNC speech on my ipod, after he gave it I immediately read his first book and then when his second book came out, I read it that week straight through. I love his story, I love his charisma, I love his feelings towards community. I just simply disagree with his view on the role of government, and I'd be a hack if I didn't acknowledge that.

Most folks take that to mean that I was going to vote McCain anyway. Perhaps, but truth be told if a pollster called and asked, I likely would have said Bob Barr. I was thinking it may very well be a protest vote kind of year. What I needed to see from McCain was vintage McCain, not robotic scripted awkward McCain. Picking a vp out of left right field that infuriates so many people? Now, that's more like it. McCain is supposed to be unpredictable. That's part of his charm. And truth be told -- I'm just as annoyed with what the GOP has done lately as everybody else. I think most fiscal conservative types are.

We'll see how all this plays out. I'm just thrilled that no matter what happens, a history changing ticket wins. We've come a long way.