Lot's of emotion on the Palin VP pick by McCain, if you've been following my twitter stream you know I think it was a fantastic pick. I'll do my best to explain it in a non-partisan way. (I do, however, hold a conservative view of the role of gov't.. it doesn't really factor into this though). I'm also talking strictly strategy -- I'm positive Sarah Palin has a lot of credentials that justify her amazing, though fairly short, political career. I'm just not familiar enough with them to build a case on it. So, forgive me for strictly talking about the gender/outsider aspects to all this.McCain needed to go bold. A traditional pick would have left a boring ticket vs. an exciting ticket and played right into the narrative the democrats have created -- change from the status quo. There were only a couple people who had picked Palin, a few more that suggested KB Hutchinson. Past that, the thinking really was that it'd be Pawlenty or Romney or Huckabee or some sort of "obvious" choice. A 'safe' choice, but certainly not exciting.
There are obvious questions/concerns with the Sarah Palin pick. Experience is the obvious one -- if McCain kicks the bucket, is she ready to take over? And will women feel this was a contrived pick and that they're being pandered to?
The experience argument is an interesting one. It may invalidate McCain's attacks on Obama, or at the same time, it may highlight the fact that the inexperienced candidate on the Democrat ticket is the one on the top, not the bottom. In this way, it could be a trap for the DNC. We'll have to wait and see.
The bigger trap though, is the female vote within a democrat party desperately trying to move past the primary. The first aspect to this is regarding the contrived/pandering points. I hear ya, but let's be real. If John Kerry can pander to southerner's by picking an inexperienced John Edwards, and Obama can pander to the working class by picking Biden, why can't someone pander to women? Politics is about appealing to the widest amount of supporters possible, and frankly, women are a demographic that have largely been ignored. Shouldn't they be allowed to be pandered to, when every other group is? Heck, George Bush was sold as a guy's guy constantly.
The second aspect to this is the more deadly trap the DNC could fall into. When you really dig down into the HRC hold outs, there are a lot of lingering feelings of sexism within the party. A inexperienced male was able to beat the "proven" female candidate, but only because the party itself threw out two of the biggest states "won" by the female candidate.
If Democrats attack Palin for inexperience, after justifying Obama's inexperience -- whats the difference between the two candidates? Once again, it's gender. One's a male, one's a female. The sexism argument doesn't just go away, it moves to the forefront.
A lot of my democrat friends have pointed out that HRC supporters won't support a pro-life female. That might be true on the whole, but it's not about winning over the majority of HRC supporters. It's about winning over Hillary supporters in states like Pennsylvania, where Obama was beaten handedly.
Females from working class, catholic, families.
In other words, females from working class, pro-life, families.
The stage has been set. The DNC is busy running off a script prewritten for any republican opponent -- bush, bush, bush, bush, no bush iii, bush. Fairly quickly, McCain is separating himself from the way the GOP brand is currently perceived.
It's a risky pick, but given the nature of the race, I think it's truly brilliant. I'll be busy trying to read up on her background to see if she can hold her own politically outside of the strategy aspects. Hopefully I'll like what I see.
Comments...
(Page 1)1. The difference in flip-flopped age/experience in the two tickets might hinge on McCain's age risk and her day-one potential. However, that scenario might still seem attractive to HRC, um, swingers.
Her hubby might have a skeleton, but surely they vetted the heck out of him. High school sweethearts, likely no real time to go to New Orleans for the wet t shirt beer bath contest posters. Pro union with an egregious instance in which she took on the police union pet. Man! A hocky-playing, game winnin', moose shootin', lipstick-wearin' frontier (what's left of it) Governor woman -- with five kids? With a knowing decision to bear the fifth as a Down's syndrome fetus? Note the steady-barreled taptaptap automatic fire on that tv clip of her standing aim with the military rifle? I'd love to see that target group. I'd love to OWN the target group, autographed.
I wondered where the new GOP guys were gonna' come from. Turned out it was from the ladies room.
I keep thinking *if* Obama isn't a managed cardboard cutout, this might be the first win-win election in a long, long time. American voting traditional theory of fine choices you can believe in, depending on the scan differences in liberal and conservative thought patterns.
5:59PM on Aug 29th 2008 by Dacker
2. From a strategy perspective, the McCain camp scored big this week. They successfully overshadowed the Dem Convention by keeping the rumors swelling all week and then taking the spotlight immediately off of Obama. They have really been showing sophistication in their strategy, taking advantage of the ridiculous amount of time Obama has had to spend trying to mend hurt feelings within the Dem party, ala Hillary fans.
The other key difference in the inexperience debate - as in who has less - is that Obama is a Harvard Lawyer, served as State Senator and is a US Senator. Obama's experience in the legislature has been, at best, a reliable vote for the Dem. party. In his entire career, he has not instigated a single major reform or policy on his own.
Palin has been a Mayor, Served as Ethics Commissioner of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, and as Governor. Three EXECTUIVE positions. In all three positions she was a reformer and a leader, and as Governor she is Commander in Chief of the State National Guard.
If you compare the two, Palin has the clear advantage. Not to mention unique insight into the Energy Debate - a real bonus.
So while as a woman I am THRILLED with her gender, as a Republican I am thrilled the McCain I knew and loved in '00 is back and daring to take on the same reformer message and above the party policies to moderates and independents, and maybe even a few Dems.
Change doesn't have to mean we abandon common sense. McCain Palin ticket will likely talk a lot about change and reform, but it will sound very different from Obama's fluff - he should be very worried that his hope, change and triple bypasses for everyone rhetoric has its days numbered.
6:04PM on Aug 29th 2008 by kat
3. Good to read your thoughts on the matter, Alex.
I disagree with the analysis. I think this will prove really disastrous for your, as it guts the only thing that was working for McCain ("ready to lead?") only to dampen the "status quo" argument which has been working for Obama. But VP < Prez, so I don't see Palin's "freshness" helping tons.
Also, more HRC hold-outs care about one thing more than HRC: that's reproductive health rights.
Lastly, you're way wrong that "A inexperienced male was able to beat the "proven" female candidate, but only because the party itself threw out two of the biggest states "won" by the female candidate." With all of their votes reinstated HRC was still way short. She lost because she was the status quo candidate in a "change" year.
11:33PM on Aug 29th 2008 by Nate Westheimer
4. Nate,
I'm only echoing the comments that I've seen on sites like talkleft.com and other left leaning sites (metafilter, etc.) Visit the hillary supporting forums, and you'll see a lot more of the same charges of sexism. Do I believe them? Nope. But that's not the point.
We're certainly in for a much more interesting campaign today than we were yesterday, and regardless of who wins, it's a history changing event. That's pretty cool.
Hope you had fun in Denver, I'm sure it was a sight to behold!
11:41PM on Aug 29th 2008 by Alex Rudloff
5. Here is a little secret - Women's opinions on reproductive rights are as diverse as the opinions men hold. And for most it is not the defining issue they look at, it is one of many that help frame their decision. The vocal one-issue-voters choose their candidates on their one issue - and campaigns spend very little time worrying about them. you either have them or you don't.
So Alex's point above stands true - "It's not about winning over the majority of HRC supporters. It's about winning over Hillary supporters in states like Pennsylvania, where Obama was beaten handedly. Females from working class, catholic, families. In other words, females from working class, pro-life, families."
And in States like Colorado and the dakotas where all voters - men and women - will relate a heck of a lot more to Palin than East Coast Long time Senator Biden, Palin is a great strategic choice.
10:41AM on Aug 30th 2008 by Kat
6. Since most of my friends are at the opening game of the season for UCF and I am stuck at work, I have nothing better to do then read Alex's website. (That sounded bad, its a good site to visit) I think that there have been some good points brought up by people here.
First, I have to agree with Kat when she said that "Women's opinions on reproductive rights are as diverse as the opinions men hold." Also, that its not going to be one single issue that draws someone to vote for a candidate but where you stand on a variety of issues and which candidate will represent those views and beliefs you have.
Second, basically McCain said Obama is to inexperienced to lead and Obama has said that McCain has been in D.C. to long to make the changes needed for the country. Now that the VPs have been selected each of those arguments are a waste seeing as both Nominees picked against what they have been saying.
Now to the pick. At first I was like this could be an exciting pick for McCain. After thinking though, I think this pick smells of desperation to me. (More then Obama's pick of Biden) When you run for president you run on a set of principles you stand for. (Which for the most part align with your party.) I feel that if McCain were confidant in himself and his party that he could pick a stronger VP candidate in the party. (My belief is Huckabee was the best VP choice) However, it seems McCain does not believe that just running along party lines will win the election for him. With the pick of Palin, McCain is trying to reach out to women, independents and democrats turned off by the debacle that was the DNC of Fl. and Mich. I feel that if McCain truely believed in himself and the party he would not have needed a bold pick as Alex said. To me this represents the underlining theme that McCain does not believe he himself can get out of the Bush shadow that for the most part been cast on him.
I feel that this will either go down two ways when looked back on. This bold pick helped McCain cross the line and reached out to others. Or it will be a pick that is desperation and will highlight this fact. Ultimately, only time will tell if this choice works for him.
P.S. Alex lost a bet to me. He said there was no way for ECU to beat Va. Tech. ECU won 27 to 22. I was right and Alex was wrong. Just had to share with everyone.
6:23PM on Aug 30th 2008 by Arthur DeFilippo
7. Arthur, no need to make excuses for reading my blog. I know you stalk me.
I don't think it's the hail mary the media is trying to make it out to be, but it's definitely a post route coming out of the shotgun. McCain is 100% the underdog on this, and if he stands a chance, its not with a run up the middle (a nice, safe, Romney type of pick).
The real question is whether or not McCain voters are less likely to vote for McCain, and if any non McCain voters will cross over. I don't think any folks would cross over with an old-rich-white-guy pick. Not in this election.
I'm also not sure why people insist on her having absolutely no experience, when she has just as much as Gov. Kaine, someone many people still suggest as being a more 'reform' pick than Sen. Biden. The only difference is gender. Gov Palin is an elected official, governing an actual state.
We'll have to see -- regardless, we have a historic ticket on both sides. That's a pretty cool thing.
10:20AM on Aug 31st 2008 by Alex Rudloff