Jason Calacanis asked an interesting question today in regards to the economy.. Interesting times, indeed.

I spent a little time trying to catch up on the economic going-on's in the world on my flights this past week, and things are looking volatile if nothing else. Credit fears and overall consumer confidence levels are a drag, inflation concerns and the price of oil are putting downward pressure on the markets, and real estate is in the dumps.

I've posted before about the movement of money from one investment opportunity to another, and I still think thats the case. It's just.. When the market goes south, along with a hard asset like real estate, that largely leaves things like gold, CD's, t-bills and private equity investments, right? If interest rates are forced up from inflation, that doesn't make CD's all that appealing, but the Fed is looking like they might have to cut rates to spark spending -- I'm just not sure what a rate cut would do to consumer confidence. Wouldn't it be seen as more than an admittance of trouble ahead? I bet the media would at least spin it that way.

The other option is to move money overseas, which could lead to an even more unbalanced trade deficit/weakening dollar. Not necessarily a problem if we didn't have such profound budgetary concerns. Can't cover the overruns unless you can grow the economy faster than the debt. That won't happen if the money is invested elsewhere (the often overlooked exception to trickle down).

On the other hand, a month ago the Dow set a record high, factors like the unemployment index are fairly strong. June 2007's CPI was up 2.7% from June 2006, which seems to be about right (expectation should be 2-3% a year, correct?). The productivity index is up strong for the second quarter (over 2% 2nd quarter, compared to 0.2% for the 1st quarter of 2007). Many aspects of the economy seem to be not just healthy, but growing stronger. (follow along at home over at bls.gov)

I'm inclined to suggest that our overall confidence in handling the potential threats is what's dragging us down, and if there is a signal of good news somewhere, it'll cause a rebound. The threats aren't small ones, to be sure, but we're also surrounded by lots and lots of negativity driving down confidence. I'm not an economist, and I'm still trying to learn as much as I can about the subject, but it would appear that our economy is much stronger than folks want to give it credit for (hah, get it? credit?...ahem). It goes without saying that housing continues to be the biggest risk -- if we can avoid sellers panic, we may just pull through. Thin ice, though.

Thoughts?